注:本文內(nèi)容主要摘錄自美國(guó)知乎quora上相關(guān)的發(fā)言，并非我自己的看法，分享到這里為大家提供一個(gè)借鑒參考。
正文如下：
“卡脖子”的表述很形象，借用到核心技術(shù)中來(lái)，那就說(shuō)明這項(xiàng)技術(shù)非常關(guān)鍵，在一個(gè)項(xiàng)目或一個(gè)產(chǎn)品中，“卡脖子”技術(shù)的重要性不言而喻。我們常用的電腦核心芯片、高端手機(jī)核心芯片、存儲(chǔ)設(shè)備、視頻系統(tǒng)中顯示驅(qū)動(dòng)芯片、數(shù)字信號(hào)處理設(shè)備芯片，及可編程邏輯設(shè)備核心芯片等，都是中國(guó)自己造不出來(lái)的高端芯片，幾乎完全依賴進(jìn)口，在這些產(chǎn)品中，中國(guó)自產(chǎn)芯片在全球的市場(chǎng)占有率連1%都不到，甚至絕大部分低于0.5%。
這樣的現(xiàn)狀下，高端芯片自然就成了“卡脖子”問(wèn)題，原因是極大的需求量和極低的自供給量，所以美國(guó)制裁華為，殺手锏就是芯片。近期在美版知乎論壇上就有這樣的一個(gè)話題引起各國(guó)網(wǎng)友的熱議：“美國(guó)向荷蘭施壓，阻止荷蘭ASML公司向中芯國(guó)際出售EUV設(shè)備，最終影響了中國(guó)的技術(shù)夢(mèng)”。美國(guó)能壓制中國(guó)芯片發(fā)展多久?
讓我們也來(lái)看看國(guó)外民間網(wǎng)友對(duì)這個(gè)問(wèn)題的的觀點(diǎn)吧！
話題內(nèi)容
荷蘭半導(dǎo)體工程師的觀點(diǎn)
I think I am the perfect person to answer this. I have been working in the semiconductor industry for years, currently living in the Netherlands, lived and worked in China for 3 years, I know a lot of engineers from ASML (expecially after they hired hundreds of Turkish engineers).
我認(rèn)為我是回答這個(gè)問(wèn)題的最佳人選。我在半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)工作多年，目前生活在荷蘭，在中國(guó)生活和工作了3年，我認(rèn)識(shí)很多來(lái)自ASML的工程師(特別是他們雇傭了數(shù)百名土耳其工程師后)。
Let me tell you something: High-end semiconductor manufacturing is black magic. Both the processes and tools used for it are very complex. ASML’s EUV lithography machine is probably the most complex tool humankind ever developed since it stopped jumping between trees. It took billions of Euros and decades of experience to perfect it. Other experienced lithography machine suppliers failed at it. China has no experience in high-end semiconductor manufacturing tools with the exception of one-off/few-off prototypes.
讓我告訴你：高端半導(dǎo)體制造是一種黑魔法。它所使用的過(guò)程和工具都非常復(fù)雜。ASML的EUV光刻機(jī)可能是人類發(fā)明的最復(fù)雜的工具，因?yàn)樗辉僭跇渲g跳躍。它花費(fèi)了數(shù)十億歐元和幾十年的經(jīng)驗(yàn)來(lái)完善它。其他經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的光刻機(jī)供應(yīng)商在這方面失敗了。中國(guó)在高端半導(dǎo)體制造工具方面沒有經(jīng)驗(yàn)，除了一次性或少量的原型。
ASML’s EUV lithography machine. Needs 41 semi-trucks to get transported, costs $150 million, has 100.000 major parts, has mirrors that need months of grinding to reach needed smoothness, needs multiple people with PhD’s as machine operators. Quite high-tech. Isn’t it?
ASML公司的EUV光刻機(jī)。運(yùn)輸需要41輛半卡車，耗資1.5億美元，有10萬(wàn)個(gè)主要部件，鏡子需要數(shù)月的打磨才能達(dá)到所需的光滑程度，需要多名擁有博士學(xué)位的人作為機(jī)器操作員。很高科技。不是嗎?
EUV光刻機(jī)
Unfortunately, ASML is a very convenient target for the USA. The company uses a lot of critical parts from the USA but those parts don’t represent anything significant in the US economy in terms of their monetary value. Chinese electronics industry still depends on foreign chips so it can not threaten fabs with banning the sale of chips in China that were manufactured using ASML tools. Also, China isn’t a big customer of ASML too. In short, China can not answer with reciprocal sanctions.
不幸的是，ASML對(duì)美國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)非常方便的目標(biāo)。該公司使用了許多來(lái)自美國(guó)的關(guān)鍵部件，但這些部件的貨幣價(jià)值在美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)中并不代表任何重要的東西。中國(guó)電子行業(yè)仍依賴外國(guó)芯片，因此無(wú)法通過(guò)禁止在中國(guó)銷售使用ASML工具生產(chǎn)的芯片來(lái)威脅晶片廠。此外，中國(guó)也不是阿斯麥的大客戶?？傊?，中國(guó)不能以對(duì)等制裁作為回應(yīng)。
Is China hopeless? No.
中國(guó)絕望了? 不！
1- All of those tools are engineered and made by humans, and the laws of physics are the same both in the Netherlands and China. If the Netherlands could, then there is no reason for anybody else to fail with the correct approach.
1-所有這些工具都是由人類設(shè)計(jì)和制造的，而且物理定律在荷蘭和中國(guó)都是相同的。如果荷蘭可以，那么其他國(guó)家就沒有理由用正確的方法失敗。
2- China is filthy rich compared to the Netherlands. Chinese economy is 17x of the Netherlands’, 9x of SK’s, 27x of Taiwan’s, 3+x of Japan’s. With state support, Chinese fabs and tool makers can hire the top people from the rest of the world with salaries ASML, LamResearch, AM, Synopsys, TSMC, Samsung, … simply can not compete with. A significant portion of these companies’ employees are expats anyway, most of them are just after money.
2、中國(guó)比荷蘭富得流油。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)是荷蘭的17倍，SK的9倍，中國(guó)臺(tái)灣地區(qū)的27倍，日本的3倍。在國(guó)家的支持下，中國(guó)的晶圓廠和工具制造商可以用ASML、LamResearch、AM、Synopsys、臺(tái)積電、三星等公司無(wú)法與之競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的薪水從世界其他地方雇傭頂尖人才。這些公司的員工中有很大一部分是外國(guó)人，他們中的大多數(shù)只是為了錢。
In fact China is already doing this successfully with good results. For example, it already has a working EUV lithography machine prototype, already caught up with the rest in chip testing, packaging, wafer production, also its first immersion lithography machine (good enough for most things) is getting prepared for commercial use.
事實(shí)上，中國(guó)已經(jīng)成功地做到了這一點(diǎn)，并取得了良好的成果。例如，它已經(jīng)有了一臺(tái)工作中的EUV光刻機(jī)原型，在芯片測(cè)試、封裝、晶圓生產(chǎn)方面已經(jīng)趕上了其他公司，同時(shí)它的第一臺(tái)浸沒式光刻機(jī)(對(duì)大多數(shù)事情來(lái)說(shuō)已經(jīng)足夠好了)也準(zhǔn)備投入商業(yè)使用。
3- China is a scientific powerhouse on its own. It is the country with most patent applications, most research output, graduates more STEM students than any other country, 2nd largest R&D spender, has 11 universities in top 100. This leads us to my first point. If the Netherlands could, so can China if given enough time.
中國(guó)本身就是一個(gè)科學(xué)強(qiáng)國(guó)。它是專利申請(qǐng)最多、研究產(chǎn)出最多的國(guó)家，STEM專業(yè)的畢業(yè)生比其他任何國(guó)家都多，研發(fā)支出排名第二，有11所大學(xué)進(jìn)入前100名。這就引出了我的第一點(diǎn)。如果荷蘭可以，那么只要給中國(guó)足夠的時(shí)間，中國(guó)也可以。
4- Catching up is much easier than innovating. Knowing something is possible and having a general knowledge of how it works make things much easier.
趕超比創(chuàng)新容易得多。知道某件事是可能的，并且對(duì)它的工作原理有一個(gè)大致的了解會(huì)讓事情變得容易得多。
5- Time is on the Chinese side. Technology of semiconductors is close to maturity/stalling (choose the word depending on your view). If the development slows (which it does) it gives China the opportunity to catch-up. If a tech revolution happens, then the playing field evens out anyway.
5-時(shí)間在中國(guó)這邊。半導(dǎo)體技術(shù)接近成熟/停滯(根據(jù)你的觀點(diǎn)選擇這個(gè)詞)。如果發(fā)展放緩(確實(shí)如此)，中國(guó)就有機(jī)會(huì)迎頭趕上。如果科技革命發(fā)生了，那么競(jìng)爭(zhēng)環(huán)境無(wú)論如何都是公平的。
6- You don’t need EUV for the most things. You don’t even need high-end processes for the most things. There is more to semiconductors than the latest smartphone processors, GPUs, and CPUs. Look at iPhone 12 teardown videos. You will see a lot of chips. Only one of them needs EUV. An average modern car has 250+ computers inside. That means thousands of chips. All of them are manufactured using old processes. This is even more true for military and space applications. Those use very old chips that are known to be reliable and secure.
6-大多數(shù)事情都不需要EUV。大多數(shù)事情你甚至不需要高端的流程。半導(dǎo)體不僅僅是最新的智能手機(jī)處理器、圖形處理器(gpu)和cpu?？纯磇Phone 12拆卸的視頻。你會(huì)看到很多芯片。只有一個(gè)需要EUV。一輛普通的現(xiàn)代汽車內(nèi)部有250臺(tái)電腦。這意味著成千上萬(wàn)的芯片。所有這些都是用舊工藝制造的。在軍事和太空應(yīng)用方面更是如此。它們使用的是非常老舊的芯片，但已知是可靠和安全的。
Conclusion: Blocking ASML from selling EUV machines to China can hurt Chinese businesses for some time but in the grand scheme it is insignificant. The USA needs to run faster rather than keep trying to block China if it wants to preserve its dominance in tech.
結(jié)論：阻止ASML向中國(guó)銷售EUV設(shè)備可能會(huì)在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)傷害中國(guó)企業(yè)，但從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，這是微不足道的。如果美國(guó)想要保持其在科技領(lǐng)域的主導(dǎo)地位，它需要跑得更快，而不是一直試圖阻止中國(guó)。
An update on the Chinese EUV light source: New Options for Synchrotron Light Sources
中國(guó)極紫外光源的更新：同步加速器光源的新選擇
It seems the basic research is complete and the method completely different than of ASML’s.
看來(lái)基礎(chǔ)研究已經(jīng)完成，方法和ASML的完全不同。
德國(guó)網(wǎng)友的觀點(diǎn)
This EUV thing has been adopted into China’s 14th 5-year plan which has been started since this year. And for the record, China has never missed a single deadline for the past 13 5-year plans. So it’s safe to say that China will have this thing by 2026. So speaking of the US resisting China’s development, it would be 4 more years for this particular item.
EUV項(xiàng)目已被納入今年啟動(dòng)的中國(guó)第14個(gè)五年計(jì)劃。根據(jù)記錄，在過(guò)去的13個(gè)五年計(jì)劃中，中國(guó)從未錯(cuò)過(guò)任何一個(gè)最后期限。所以可以肯定地說(shuō)，中國(guó)將在2026年擁有它。所以說(shuō)到美國(guó)抵制中國(guó)的發(fā)展，這個(gè)項(xiàng)目還需要4年。
And the good thing for China having the EUV equipment is that the price of the equipment will be significantly dropped. So I guess that would be a benefit of the entire world.
中國(guó)擁有EUV設(shè)備的好處是，設(shè)備的價(jià)格將大幅下降。所以我想這對(duì)整個(gè)世界都有好處。
America is ALREADY behind China in so MANY aspects and they are still denying and avoiding the thought that America might one day second to China. That frightens many Americans.
美國(guó)在很多方面已經(jīng)落后于中國(guó)了，他們還在否認(rèn)和避免美國(guó)有一天會(huì)落后于中國(guó)的想法。這讓許多美國(guó)人感到害怕。
No matter how ineffective many of the counter-China measures, e.g. trade war, Americans have and are to put in place, they will keep doing the same things and getting themselves hurt before China does.
無(wú)論許多繁華措施有多無(wú)效，例如貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，美國(guó)人已經(jīng)并將付諸實(shí)施，他們將繼續(xù)做同樣的事情，他們會(huì)主動(dòng)出擊而不是等待中國(guó)超越他們。
The Chinese are the most industrious race on earth.
中國(guó)人是世界上最勤勞的民族。
Necessity is the mother of Invention.
需求是發(fā)明之母
The Chinese will find a way. The more you suppress them and the more you try to deny them the technology - they will begin to make it on their own and they will slowly do better and better.
中國(guó)人會(huì)找到辦法的。你越是壓制他們，你越是試圖否認(rèn)他們的技術(shù)，他們就會(huì)開始自己創(chuàng)造，慢慢地做得越來(lái)越好。
Chips is the best example.
芯片就是最好的例子。
As long as Taiwan kept supplying them the chips - The Chinese were happy. They focused on other things
只要臺(tái)積電繼續(xù)向他們供應(yīng)芯片——中國(guó)人就很高興。然后會(huì)他們專注于其他事情。
江蘇南京的臺(tái)積電工廠
The Minute Trump decided to threaten the Chinese - they decided to get their act together and start making their own chips. They will start with inferior ones but in 10 years - they will outmanufacture Taiwan at 1/3 the cost and take away the market.
特朗普決定威脅他們那一刻起，他們就會(huì)齊心協(xié)力開始制作自己的芯片。他們一開始會(huì)用劣質(zhì)產(chǎn)品，但10年后，他們的生產(chǎn)成本將是臺(tái)積電的三分之一，并奪走市場(chǎng)。
The US may try again and again but
美國(guó)人可能會(huì)一次又一次地嘗試，但是：
(a) They waited too long. China is too rich today. They have too much money.
他們會(huì)等得很久。今天的中國(guó)太富裕了。他們有太多的錢。
(b) China has too many tentacles in foreign countries. Thousands of Chinese in various industries who are experts.
中國(guó)在國(guó)外涉及的領(lǐng)域太多。數(shù)以千計(jì)的華人專家分布在各行各業(yè)。
In Space alone - China was behind India until 2010 - but today - they have their own Mapping System for their huge landmass as well as are in the position of becoming the Third country in the globe to land on Mars - having landed on the moon.
僅在太空方面——中國(guó)在2010年之前一直落后于印度（原文如此，譯者注）——但今天——他們擁有自己的龐大陸地測(cè)繪系統(tǒng)，并處于成為全球第三個(gè)登陸火星的國(guó)家的位置——已經(jīng)登陸了月球。
China and Russia are on the verge of building their own International Space Station having both the financial muscle and technology.
中國(guó)和俄羅斯即將建立自己的國(guó)際空間站，他們既有財(cái)力又有技術(shù)。
You cannot bully or intimidate or stifle Progress. Eventually Life finds a way.
你們不能靠欺凌、恐嚇或扼殺進(jìn)步。最終，生活找到了一條路。
US should learn this lesson hard. The more they try - they may get 10 years more but in the end China will get there and take over.
美國(guó)應(yīng)該好好吸取教訓(xùn)。他們嘗試得越多——他們可能最晚在十年內(nèi)達(dá)到同等的技術(shù)并接管整個(gè)市場(chǎng)。
It might be quite awhile, but there are many variables that’s in play.
這可能需要一段時(shí)間，但有很多變數(shù)在發(fā)揮作用。
It should be noted that NO country at this point can produce the ASML EUV equipment on its own (or even the older generation DUV is questionable), ASML relies heavily on suppliers from Germany / UK / US / Japan etc as well to make their equipment, Japan might be the closest country that can produce a similar (but older generation) equipment relying only on company / tech inside their border.
需要注意的是，目前沒有哪個(gè)國(guó)家可以自己生產(chǎn)ASML的EUV設(shè)備(甚至老一代的DUV也值得懷疑)，ASML嚴(yán)重依賴德國(guó)/英國(guó)/美國(guó)/日本等國(guó)的供應(yīng)商來(lái)生產(chǎn)他們的設(shè)備，日本可能是最接近能夠生產(chǎn)類似(但老一代)設(shè)備的國(guó)家，只依賴本國(guó)的公司/技術(shù)。
As of right now the ASML not selling highest-end EUV to China isn’t even really a thing, because they can’t produce enough of them anyway, and the whole project managed to get off the ground because Intel / TSMC / Samsung funded the project SPECIFICALLY so that ASML only really sells to them that machine. it’s not just SMIC of China that can’t buy it, even global foundery of the world can’t either.
就目前而言，ASML不向中國(guó)銷售最高規(guī)格的EUV還算不上什么，因?yàn)樗麄儫o(wú)論如何都無(wú)法生產(chǎn)足夠多的EUV，而且整個(gè)項(xiàng)目成功地啟動(dòng)了，因?yàn)橛⑻貭?臺(tái)積電/三星專門資助了這個(gè)項(xiàng)目，所以ASML只向他們出售那臺(tái)機(jī)器。不只是中國(guó)的中芯國(guó)際買不到它，就連全球鑄造廠也買不到。
There are many layers of problems to China building it’s own extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, but the most difficult is the fact that EUV and the way TSMC & Samsung uses them are the extreme edge of precision engineering and manufacturing. something China has never been particularly great at, for example, they still struggle so far to build their own internal combustion engines to the same level as Japan / Germany (the two key powerhouse players in doing such things.)
中國(guó)制造自己的極紫外光刻機(jī)存在許多層面的問(wèn)題，但最困難的是EUV以及臺(tái)積電和三星使用它們的方式是精密工程和制造的極端優(yōu)勢(shì)。中國(guó)在這方面從來(lái)都不是特別擅長(zhǎng)，例如，到目前為止，他們?nèi)匀辉谂χ圃炫c日本/德國(guó)(這兩個(gè)關(guān)鍵的大國(guó)在做這類事情)相同的內(nèi)燃機(jī)。
There are certainly potential ways for China to reengineer the process and come up with something that has a relatively similar end result but relies on different technologies, however that would require them to completely reinvent the wheel of something that was basically the collaboration of the whole world over decades on their own. Again, that’s not IMPOSSIBLE, but it’s certainly extremely difficult and inefficient.
中國(guó)當(dāng)然有可能重新設(shè)計(jì)這一過(guò)程，并提出一些具有相對(duì)相似的最終結(jié)果，但依賴不同技術(shù)的東西，但這將需要他們完全重新發(fā)明輪子的東西，這基本上是整個(gè)世界在幾十年的合作，靠自己。同樣，這不是不可能的，但這肯定是極其困難和低效的。
Not to mention that this is not a purely scientific / engineering project, the difference with TSMC winning over other competitors is primarily COST. i.e that it’s not that Intel CAN’T do 7nm, they can, it’s that their failure rate is much higher than TSMC that if say, Apple relies only on Intel for their 7nm chip, they’ll have to sell their iphone at a much higher price and/or one of Intel or Apple (or both) go bankrupt.
且不說(shuō)這不是一個(gè)純粹的科學(xué)/工程項(xiàng)目，臺(tái)積電與其他競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的區(qū)別主要在于成本。也就是說(shuō)，不是英特爾不能做7nm，而是他們可以，而是他們的失敗率比臺(tái)積電高得多，如果蘋果只依賴英特爾做他們的7nm芯片，他們將不得不以更高的價(jià)格出售他們的iphone和/或英特爾或蘋果(或兩者)之一破產(chǎn)。
So even if China COULD reverse engineer or re-engineer the EUV machine or subsititute, if it doesn’t actually win out on a cost basis it’s basically useless commercially, an insanely expensive academic project (we’re talking about NASA level funding.) most importantly, the US could simply shut out said machine using standards, and for local chinese companies like SMIC to adapt a different system would be extremely problematic.
因此，即使中國(guó)可以對(duì)EUV機(jī)器進(jìn)行逆向工程或重新設(shè)計(jì)或替代，如果它在成本上沒有真正贏得勝利，它在商業(yè)上基本上是無(wú)用的，一個(gè)瘋狂昂貴的學(xué)術(shù)項(xiàng)目(我們說(shuō)的是NASA水平的資金。)最重要的是，美國(guó)可以簡(jiǎn)單地排除使用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的機(jī)器，而對(duì)中國(guó)本土公司，如中芯國(guó)際適應(yīng)一個(gè)不同的系統(tǒng)將是非常有問(wèn)題的。
Is it POSSIBLE if China just like nationalize SMIC and stuff? yeah, but it would in the grander scheme of things, be pretty close to cutting off your own nose to spit your enemy. China would effectively be abandoning the world market for decades in such a scenario. and probably move slower than their competitors.
如果中國(guó)把中芯國(guó)際國(guó)有化，可能嗎?沒錯(cuò)，但從更大的角度來(lái)說(shuō)，這就像是割下自己的鼻子來(lái)唾棄你的敵人。在這種情況下，中國(guó)實(shí)際上是在幾十年內(nèi)放棄世界市場(chǎng)。而且可能比他們的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手行動(dòng)更慢。
What China SHOULD do, is what they have been doing most of the time (some major exceptions of terrible mistakes and frauds non-withstanding.) which is to try and gradually move up the chain and establish more and more companies in this field and hope that some of them eventually hold a major niche that becomes almost indispensable in this field. I’d say that most of the actual workers / players in this field in China understands this and is more or less trying to do that.
中國(guó)應(yīng)該做的，是他們?cè)诖蠖鄶?shù)時(shí)候一直在做的(盡管存在一些嚴(yán)重的錯(cuò)誤和欺詐)，那就是嘗試并逐步向上移動(dòng)鏈條，在這個(gè)領(lǐng)域建立越來(lái)越多的公司，并希望其中一些公司最終在這個(gè)領(lǐng)域占據(jù)一個(gè)幾乎不可或缺的主要利基。我想說(shuō)的是，中國(guó)這個(gè)領(lǐng)域的大多數(shù)實(shí)際工作者/參與者都明白這一點(diǎn)，并或多或少地試圖這樣做。
But just to remind people, semi conductor’s main raw material input is Silicon
但提醒大家一下，半導(dǎo)體的主要原材料是硅。
So just to give an idea what shutting out China REALLY looks like.
所以，讓我們看看把中國(guó)拒之門外到底是什么樣子。
Now that’s the part on why it’s a major problem for China, the other side of the coin is that the US is increasingly playing a dangerous game as well and could blow up its own advantages or worse.
這就是為什么它是中國(guó)的一個(gè)主要問(wèn)題，硬幣的另一面是，美國(guó)也在越來(lái)越多地玩一個(gè)危險(xiǎn)的游戲，可能會(huì)摧毀自己的優(yōu)勢(shì)，甚至更糟。
If you’re ASML and the EU in general, you’re not exactly thrilled to basically have the US policy forced upon you as well. and would probably now actively think about having replacement tech for the US/UK stuff if possible so that you have at least political and economic independence (i.e even if they don’t sell to China, it’s on their terms and not because the US commanded them to do so.) and once that happens the next potential moves by US and others could become quite scary.
如果你是ASML和歐盟，你不會(huì)因?yàn)槊绹?guó)的政策強(qiáng)加給你而感到興奮。如果可能的話，現(xiàn)在可能會(huì)積極考慮擁有替代美國(guó)/英國(guó)產(chǎn)品的技術(shù)，這樣你至少有政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)獨(dú)立(也就是說(shuō)，即使他們不賣給中國(guó)，這是根據(jù)他們的條件，而不是因?yàn)槊绹?guó)命令他們這么做)，一旦發(fā)生這種情況，美國(guó)和其他國(guó)家的下一個(gè)潛在舉動(dòng)可能會(huì)變得非常可怕。
It should be generally noted that the EU and other US allies is actually paying almost all the price for the trade war/ geopolitical struggle with China / Russia while the US is benefitting at their expense.
需要指出的是，歐盟和美國(guó)的其他盟友實(shí)際上為與中國(guó)/俄羅斯的貿(mào)易付出了幾乎所有的代價(jià)，而美國(guó)卻從他們的損失中受益。
So far if one look at the score board it’s pretty much the US wins and everyone else (friend or foe) loses with a few small exceptions.
到目前為止，如果你看一下記分牌，基本上美國(guó)贏麻了，其他所有人(朋友或敵人)都輸了，只有一些小的例外。
This is clearly unsustainable over the long term, and it’s not like this is just happening as a new thing, the general trend has been on-going since at least the early 2000s and not only have the likes of China and Russia been making obvious contingency plans, one would be naive to think that the EU is just a pure puppet with no independent thought or interest apart from the US.
從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，這顯然是不可持續(xù)的，這并不是一件新鮮事，至少?gòu)?1世紀(jì)初開始，這種大趨勢(shì)就一直在持續(xù)，不僅中國(guó)和俄羅斯等國(guó)一直在制定明顯的應(yīng)急計(jì)劃，人們會(huì)天真地認(rèn)為歐盟只是一個(gè)純粹的傀儡，除了美國(guó)之外沒有獨(dú)立的思想或利益。
轉(zhuǎn)自汽車電子與軟件
